Applied Research & Open Data Suite
Reproducible empirical studies, 100M-hand Monte Carlo benchmarks, and open-source datasets for blackjack probability and casino rule mutations.
Player Expectations, Variance & Dealer Distributions: 100M Simulation Study
Exhaustive convergence analysis across single, double, six, and eight-deck shoe configurations, proving exact expectation shifts from 3:2 to 6:5 natural payouts and H17.
Dealer Upcard Probability Matrix
Exhaustive absorption probabilities (totals 17–21 and bust frequency) for all upcards 2 through Ace under S17 and H17 rules.
Simulation Verification Suite (Python 3)
Deterministic test runner validating dataset row integrity, probability sum axioms (1.00 ± 0.005), and House Edge + RTP parity.
Empirical Dealer Upcard Distribution (Preview)
Subset of audited dealer absorption vectors under Standard 6-Deck S17 rules benchmarked over 100 million rounds:
| Upcard | Rule | P(17) | P(18) | P(19) | P(20) | P(21) | P(Bust) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | S17 | 13.98% | 13.41% | 13.05% | 12.41% | 11.89% | 35.26% |
| 4 | S17 | 13.05% | 12.09% | 11.62% | 11.58% | 11.41% | 40.25% |
| 5 | S17 | 12.23% | 12.21% | 11.72% | 10.39% | 10.85% | 42.60% |
| 6 | S17 | 16.54% | 10.63% | 10.61% | 10.12% | 9.78% | 42.32% |
| 7 | S17 | 36.85% | 13.78% | 7.84% | 7.89% | 7.62% | 26.02% |
| 10 | S17 | 11.18% | 11.19% | 11.21% | 33.41% | 11.59% | 21.42% |
| A | S17 | 13.08% | 13.09% | 13.07% | 13.12% | 35.94% | 11.70% |
Open Science & Academic Reproducibility
In accordance with Open Science standards, all simulation matrices and validation algorithms are released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY-4.0).
Clone the repository or download the CSV distribution suite.
Execute the Python audit suite to verify matrix completeness and row sums.
Integrate the verified expectation vectors into your own statistical modeling tools.
python papers/verify_simulations.py